Construction starts growth masks underlying weakness

Construction starts growth masks underlying weakness

Construction starts growth masks underlying weakness


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Groundbreakings improved to start the year in January, but a closer look at that growth reveals general weakness, according to Dodge Construction Network.

Total construction starts increased 0.7% month over month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.24 trillion. Nonbuilding activity, which includes electric power and utility construction, however, accounted for a majority of that jump, said Eric Gaus, chief economist at Dodge Construction Network.

In fact, a handful of megaprojects in the nonbuilding sector propped up the overall numbers.

“Nonbuilding construction remained the primary engine of growth in the first month of 2026,” said Gaus. “Three megaprojects in the nonbuilding sector accounted for nearly $20 billion or almost half of the growth in January, which would mean total construction would have been negative without those three projects.”

Nonresidential groundbreakings, for example, which include offices and hotel construction, ticked down 15.4% month over month in January. Residential construction also slid 6.4% in the first month of 2026, according to the data.

A 10.2% and 6.5% monthly uptick in warehouse and retail activity could not reverse a 52.2% drop in office and data center construction starts. Despite that drop, Gaus added he still expects strong data center activity this year.

“While January levels were soft, they still landed 14% above January 2025,” Gaus told Construction Dive. “This largely reflects normal month-to-month volatility and does not alter our bullish outlook for data center construction in 2026, given strong sector fundamentals and steady projects in the planning pipeline.”

Meanwhile, institutional construction, including education and healthcare projects, declined 15.2% month over month in January. On a positive note, manufacturing construction jumped 97.5% month over month, after a cooldown to close 2025, according to Dodge.

That lopsided growth showed over the past 12 months as well. Year over year, starts for nonresidential and residential projects declined, down 10.3% and 17% during that period. A significant 46.1% jump in nonbuilding construction year over year held up total construction, which is still up 5% compared to January 2025.

Here are the largest projects to break ground in January, according to Dodge:

  • The second phase of the $12 billion Port Arthur LNG project in Port Arthur, Texas.
  • The $6 billion Homer City Energy campus in Homer City, Pennsylvania.
  • The $1.5 billion Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and Battery Storage project in Navarro, Texas.
  • The $1.2 billion New York Presbyterian Cancer Center in New York City.
  • The first phase of the $1 billion Amkor Semiconductor Advanced Packaging in Peoria, Arizona.
  • The $714 million QTS CLT1 data center in York, South Carolina.
  • The $335 million 38 Gramercy Park East Condominiums in New York City.
  • The $265 million Lakeview Residence in West Palm Beach, Florida.
  • The $200 million Homestead Gateway Mixed Residential Tower in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Nonbuilding construction, which posted the strongest growth in December, did the same once more to kick off 2026. Groundbreakings in the sector jumped 24.3% month over month in January, largely due to a 184.8% increase in electric power and utility construction, according to Dodge. Highway and bridge starts, on the other hand, fell 42.3% month over month in January.

For the 12 months ending January 2026, total nonbuilding starts improved 21%, according to the report. That increase stemmed from a 67.9% jump in utility and gas starts over the past 12 months, though was also slightly boosted by a 3.4% uptick in highway and bridge construction.

Residential groundbreakings dipped 6.4% month over month in January following a pair of strong months to close the year in 2025. Single family construction ticked up 1.5% month over month, but starts for multifamily projects dropped 17.8% during that span.

For the 12 months ending January 2026, total residential starts tumbled 6%, according to Dodge.



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