Nearly 70 years ago, the United States began construction on the Interstate Highway
System, setting in motion an effort that has been called the greatest public works
project in American history. Now, the country’s next great public works project is
underway: an electric vehicle (EV) charging network that will reach the farthest corners
of the nation, helping to make convenient, reliable, and affordable charging a reality
for all Americans.

But while plans for the nation’s highways began with a booklet of paper maps, plans
for the national EV charging network are leveraging data models and high-performance
computing to draw the contours of the nation’s infrastructure needs. These plans will
be shaped by a seminal study from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL),
which has been at the forefront of assessing EV charging needs and developing state-of-the-art
analytical tools for over a decade.

In the study, researchers estimated the number, type, and location of chargers needed
to create a comprehensive network of EV charging infrastructure, one that can support
an anticipated 30–42 million EVs on the road by 2030.

NREL Analysis Supports U.S. Administration’s Clean Energy Goals

Between ambitious federal clean energy policies, pledges by automotive companies to
transition to zero-emission vehicles, and accelerating consumer demand for EVs, analysts
have projected that by 2030, EVs could account for 30­­–42 million light-duty vehicles
on the road. Now, NREL researchers have released The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric
Vehicle Charging Infrastructure, a quantitative needs assessment for a national charging network capable of supporting
the U.S. transition to EVs.

The study was created in collaboration with the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation (Joint Office) and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. In
turn, it will support the Joint Office’s work to deploy a network of EV chargers,
zero-emission fueling infrastructure, and zero-emission transit and school buses nationwide.
As the Joint Office works with all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico to
develop state- and community-level plans for EV charging infrastructure, the study’s findings will fuel the office’s vision of building a future where “everyone
can ride and drive electric.”

“The 2030 National Charging Network study ties together two of the administration’s
priorities: building a national EV charging network and working toward the 2030 goal
for the majority of all new car sales to be battery-electric vehicles,” said Gabe
Klein, executive director of the Joint Office. “It’s a framework for what is needed
nationally, in terms of the types of charging required, their number, and where those
chargers should go.”

To Build an EV Network, Start With Data

Estimating the EV charging infrastructure needs of an entire nation required NREL
researchers to consider a vast array of data—from projecting drivers’ typical charging
needs and EV adoption rates 7 years into the future to examining how different climates
across the United States might affect energy requirements. The result is a framework
with a never-before-seen level of detail, focused on low-, medium-, and high-adoption
scenarios where 30–42 million EVs drive U.S. roads by 2030.

The study’s “mid-adoption scenario” considers 33 million vehicles on the road by 2030,
according to NREL’s Eric Wood, a senior EV charging infrastructure researcher who
led the study’s research team.

“The framework we built for the 2030 National Charging Network study exhaustively
considers how people in the U.S. use light-duty cars to travel, what their energy
needs are for that travel, and how we can meet those needs, given projected EV adoption
rates,” Wood said. “But what really makes the framework novel is the ability to create
infrastructure estimates for specific locations using detailed transportation data.
This enabled the team to answer questions like: How will EV adoption in neighboring
states impact the demand for public fast charging along highway corridors in my area?
And how might that out-of-state demand compare to charging needs from residents in
my area?”

“Together,” Wood continued, “the study’s data create a snapshot of what we think an
EV charging network would need to look like by 2030 to support 30–42 million passenger
EVs.”

That “snapshot” captures the many ways Americans travel—including commuting, running
errands, using ride-hailing apps, and taking long road trips—and estimates the energy
demands for each.

For instance:

• Using EVI-Pro, Wood and the NREL team calculated the typical daily charging needs for running errands
  and commuting. The analysis considered energy demands for those who do and do not
  have access to convenient home charging.
• Using EVI-RoadTrip, the researchers projected the charging infrastructure needed to make long-distance
  travel along national highways feasible.
• Using EVI-OnDemand, the researchers estimated the charging infrastructure needed for ride-hailing fleets
  like Uber and Lyft to electrify their operations.
• Using NREL’s Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model, the team was able to estimate the number of EVs that might be on the road under
  different adoption scenarios.

And rather than creating a one-size-fits-all approach to charging, the study considers
the realities of life across the United States: differences in weather, housing types,
travel behaviors, and preferences in charging options.

For instance, EV drivers in very hot climates, like Arizona, and in very cold climates,
like North Dakota, may both see their cars’ charging speeds and range impacted by
climate. Drivers living in areas with more EVs, like Southern California, may have
to grapple with busier charging stations. The researchers even factor in bad charging
etiquette: the slowdowns that occur at charging stations when drivers neglect to unplug
and move a fully charged car.

This detailed region-specific analysis, Wood said, is now available to states and communities, who can break out the estimates
for their area and use the data to guide local investments into EV charging infrastructure.

“City-to-city differences in climate, travel patterns, housing, charging preferences,
and demographics aren’t considerations captured in other infrastructure assessments
that we’ve seen,” Wood said. “We believe that making that data publicly available,
and having it customized to each of these regions, will prove pivotal as cities work
to determine their network needs.”

Key Findings for the Future EV Network

The 2030 National Charging Network report finds that to support a mid-adoption scenario
of 33 million EVs on the road by 2030, the nation will need 28 million charging ports.
Because EV drivers strongly prefer the convenience of overnight charging, private
residential chargers will form the core of the national ecosystem, but they will need
to be complemented with reliable public fast charging.

Researchers project the national charging infrastructure will require:

• 182,000 publicly accessible fast charging ports to enable long-distance travel and
  ride-hailing electrification and to support those who lack access to residential charging.
• 1 million Level 2 charging ports at publicly accessible locations—including high-density
  neighborhoods, office buildings, and retail outlets.
• 26 million Level 1 and Level 2 charging ports at privately accessible locations—including
  single-family homes, multifamily properties, and workplaces.

According to Wood, one of the study’s key takeaways is an understanding of what it
will take to build the EV charging network of the future.

“In just the past few years, we have seen historic investments into national EV infrastructure,
including the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program and the Charging and Fueling Infrastructure Discretionary Grant Program, both of which are supported by the Joint Office,” Wood said. “At the same time,
the study reinforces the notion that we’re going to need to continue to work together—both
public and private entities—to build the national network that we’ll need for 2030
and beyond.

“The great news is that now we have detailed estimates of what infrastructure will
be needed,” Wood continued. “American drivers’ interest in electric vehicles is accelerating
year over year, and we’re already seeing the market respond with new investments to
meet that rising demand. Key players in this space—from automakers, charging providers,
local governments, and utility companies to retailers, real estate developers, and
private firms—can all see this as motivation to keep going, with insights from the
2030 National Charging Network report to help them target the needed infrastructure.”

Estimates Change, but Impact Lives On

Of course, the national charging landscape has changed dramatically, even since Wood’s
team published their first national EV charging analysis in 2017. Depending on variables as diverse as the changing cost of EVs, technology
adoption curves, and even Americans’ preferences for large cars, the estimates of
the study will likely change.

But according to Klein, while estimates change, impact lives on.

“The 2030 National Charging Network study is a crystal ball reflecting a moment in
time,” Klein said. “You might look into the crystal ball a year from now and see something
slightly different. But the work of this study is generated by such a sophisticated
set of models that it will continue to be relevant. It can be updated with future
assumptions and can track aspects of the charging network and of infrastructure as
they evolve.

“The fundamental contributions that Eric and the team at NREL have made will outlive
the study,” Klein continued. “They will likely go on to shape policy and programs
for many years to come.”

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