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The US may already have a negative immigration rate. That’s bad for construction.

The US may already have a negative immigration rate. That’s bad for construction.

The US may already have a negative immigration rate. That’s bad for construction.


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The share of immigrants in the overall construction workforce hit a record high in 2024. However, that number is likely to drop in the future due to recent U.S. policy, experts told Construction Dive.

That decrease will have detrimental impacts for commercial construction, which has a dire need for workers and relies on foreign-born professionals for craft work, sources said.

In 2024, 26.3% of people in the construction workforce were immigrants, according to a National Association of Home Builders analysis of Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. The detailed survey of population and employment asks about country of birth but not work authorization status.

Among tradesworkers — roles such as plumbers, electricians and welders — the number of immigrants is even higher; about one-third of those workers are foreign born.

The report did not distinguish between the residential and nonresidential building sectors. But Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, noted that the concentration of foreign-born workers appears higher in the residential sector. 

For example, the “highest shares of foreign-born workers are all occupations heavily used in homebuilding, whereas trades with lower-than-national-average shares, such as equipment operators, are used more heavily in nonresidential construction, including infrastructure,” Simonson said.

The record high share of foreign workers in construction was recorded before President Donald Trump assumed the White House for the second time in January 2025. The data highlights the industry’s reliance on the critical mass of immigrant workers even as it struggles to fill jobsite positions. 

With economists now predicting the U.S. could soon trend toward a negative immigration rate — if it hasn’t already crossed that threshold — the shortage of workers could grow even more exacerbated. 

The trades immigrants work in

Nationally, immigrants make up one in five workers for all industries, according to Riordan Frost, senior research analyst for Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. In the construction trades, it’s about one in three, per Frost.

Some roles, including drywall installers and roofers, have even higher shares of immigrants — 57% and 53%, respectively — and are more likely seen on home builders’ jobsites. Meanwhile, structural iron and steel workers and heavy equipment operators — which count 16% and 14% of immigrant workers, respectively — are often found on nonresidential sites.

A chart shows the share of immigrant workers in various construction trades.
Retrieved from NAHB on April 17, 2026

 

For the seven metros that issued the most homebuilding permits between 2019 and 2023, an average of 54% of the trades workforce was foreign‑born, according to Frost’s research. 

Although the concentration of immigrant workers appears higher in the residential sector, commercial contractors still rely on those professionals and have begun to see detrimental effects from U.S. immigration policy under Trump, industry experts said.

“Commercial contractors need to pay close attention to immigration data because it directly affects workforce availability and their ability to meet project demand,” said Kristen Swearingen, vice president of government affairs for Associated Builders and Contractors.

The decrease in construction workforce

In January, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that net immigration — the flow of people entering and exiting the country — peaked at 2.7 million for the year ending July 1, 2024. That figure dropped to 1.3 million in 2025, and could decline further to about 321,000 once data is in for 2026, the bureau reported.

Indeed, net negative migration may have already occurred, according to a January report from the Brookings Institute. Brookings estimated net migration was between -10,000 and -295,000 for the 2025 calendar year. 

Whatever the true number is, the result is in no small part due to Trump’s policy to bolster Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids and presence to increase deportations. The White House issued a release last month highlighting the impact of Trump’s immigration policy, including Brookings’ net negative migration data.

“I think this shows the vulnerability of construction to measures that effectively close the borders to individuals who would otherwise be potential construction workers, while immigration enforcement is already causing some workers to stay away from jobsites,” Simonson said.

For those reasons, it’s logical to assume “that the foreign-born percentages of workers in immigrant-heavy trades will have declined in 2025 and 2026,” he said.

Even if ICE officers don’t conduct jobsite raids at every major project across the country, the ripple effect from tighter enforcement can still reduce worker head count.

“ABC has heard from members across the country that immigration enforcement has strengthened since 2024, which has scared their employees away from going to work and possibly being detained for infractions—these are foreign-born workers who are here legally,” Swearingen said. “This has caused job delays and cost overruns for general contractors.”

Groups advocate for legal labor pathways

Major contractor groups have pushed for change to increase options and means for workers to come to the U.S. and join the workforce legally.

“We and many contractors continue to urge policymakers in Washington to create a pathway for employers to sponsor qualified workers when none are available domestically,” Simonson said.

Swearingen said ABC expects to see an effective market-based worker visa system introduced in the near term.

“Coupled with the proper provisions—this solution would strengthen America’s immigration laws and provide a lawful pathway for needed workers,” she said. “By basing access on market need, lawmakers can ensure that the construction workforce better reflects real economic conditions and helps stabilize projects, costs and timelines.”



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