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Growth will be steady but uneven, making selective bidding more important than chasing volume. -
Infrastructure and data centers lead demand, with AI-driven projects creating new opportunities across trades. -
Labor shortages will continue to squeeze margins, increasing the need for productivity and standardization. -
Disciplined, data-driven preconstruction will be the key differentiator for profitable contractors in 2026.
As we head into 2026, the overall message from construction industry forecasts is clear: growth is steady but uneven, capital remains tight though trends are improving, and the most promising opportunities lie in infrastructure, data centers, and energy-driven projects. Rather than a rising tide that lifts all boats, 2026 looks like a year where strategic clarity and selective bidding matter more than ever.
Before diving in, it’s worth asking one simple question: why does this forecast matter? In a selective-growth year, the margin between a profitable project and a painful loss gets thin. Understanding where demand is rising, where it’s flattening, and where it’s falling helps contractors decide which opportunities to chase, how to staff, where to invest, and how to approach preconstruction.
We break down the macroeconomic environment, demand outlook, sector-by-sector performance, and the most important opportunities emerging in 2026. Learn how labor shortages, cost pressures, and shifting owner expectations will influence contractors’ decisions, and how STACK is positioned to support you with whatever 2026 brings.
1. The Macro Backdrop: Slow but Steady Expansion
Major economic forecasters expect the U.S. economy to grow at roughly 2% in 2026, supported by cooling inflation and a gradual shift toward lower interest rates. The Federal Reserve projects borrowing costs easing into the mid-3% range by year’s end, offering modest relief after several years of elevated financing pressure.
For contractors, this means project owners will likely continue operating with caution, but the environment should slowly become more favorable as capital becomes less restrictive. Projects that have been sitting in limbo due to rate sensitivity, particularly in institutional and infrastructure segments, may begin to move again.
Contractors should focus on proven technologies with demonstrable ROI rather than speculative bets. They should be focused on efficiency, risk control, and competitiveness rather than massive transformational investments. The construction industry already lags almost every other sector in technology investment, and change management is the biggest barrier to adoption. Contractors should continue to invest in modernizing tools, processes, and systems to jump ahead while others stagnate.
Aaron Kivett
STACK VP Partnerships & Product
Aaron has been at STACK since 2022, leading our Integration and Developer programs. He spends most of his time thinking about how to save our customers time so they can spend more time doing what they love.
2. The Demand Outlook: Flat Volume, Uneven Strength Across Sectors
Overall, construction demand in 2026 is expected to remain relatively flat, but the story looks very different depending on the segment.
Residential construction shows signs of mild recovery. Forecasts suggest home prices will grow modestly and mortgage rates may dip into the low-6% range, which could motivate hesitant buyers and stimulate new single-family activity. The recovery won’t be dramatic, but it may feel like a welcome release after years of rate-driven stagnation. Multifamily, however, remains a patchwork: oversupplied markets may continue to struggle, while high-growth metros maintain momentum.
Nonresidential buildings are projected to see only marginal nominal growth, which when adjusted for ongoing labor and materials inflation means many contractors will experience a static environment. Institutional categories such as healthcare, education, and certain government-backed facilities offer more stability, while speculative office, retail, and commercial developments continue to lag.
In contrast, infrastructure remains one of the strongest and most reliable growth areas heading into 2026. Federal and state commitments to transportation, water, utilities, and environmental work continue to drive a robust pipeline. Even as residential and manufacturing activity cool, many civil contractors will see consistent, well-funded opportunities.
Backlogs matter more than ever as demand shifts unevenly across the industry. Stability comes from the ability to adapt. STACK makes that adaptation easier with our prebuilt assemblies and regional cost data. We help teams move into unfamiliar scopes and new markets with our easy-to-use estimating tools that provide the accuracy needed to protect margins when bids are tight.
Jack Hills
STACK Senior Account Executive
Jack began his career in paint sales before transitioning into the field at a commercial coatings company, developing a practical understanding of estimating and operations. With six years of experience at STACK, he has expanded his foundation with deep industry knowledge and strong technical expertise to help guide both growing contractors and enterprise clients through successful technology initiatives.
3. The Standout Opportunity: Data Centers & AI-Driven Infrastructure
The most dynamic part of the 2026 outlook is undeniably the rapid expansion of data center construction. Fueled by AI adoption, cloud demand, and unprecedented investment from major tech companies, the sector is expected to grow at double-digit annual rates for the rest of the decade, according to a Deloitte report.
Contractors positioned in critical work will find a wealth of opportunity, from hyperscale builds to the massive power and cooling infrastructure required to support them. Those not yet in the ecosystem may find 2026 an ideal year to explore partnerships, pursue specialized scopes, or target projects that help them build credibility in this fast-growing field.
It’s not just about server farms. The surge in energy demand tied to AI is driving significant investment in utilities, grid upgrades, and renewable integration. This ripple effect is reshaping opportunities for electrical, mechanical, sitework, and even industrial contractors across the U.S.
As AI and data center construction accelerates, preconstruction is emerging as a critical differentiator. Contractors need technology that helps them interpret complex drawings and move from quantities to confident bids quickly without compromising accuracy. Those who modernize their preconstruction process, from Takeoff to Estimate, will be best positioned to protect margin and capitalize on accelerating demand.
Mike Roy
STACK VP Sales
Mike Roy joined STACK in 2024 as Vice President of Sales, driving exponential growth and hitting record revenue goals within his first few months. Mike leads the entire sales organization, executing strategies to scale STACK’s footprint across general contracting, subcontracting, and owner/operator segments.
4. Labor & Cost Pressures: A Persistent Challenge
Even with modest overall demand, labor shortages remain one of the industry’s most daunting constraints. Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) forecasts indicate the U.S. may need nearly half a million additional workers in 2026 to meet projected construction demand. This ongoing shortage affects every phase of project delivery, from preconstruction planning to field execution.
Contractors should anticipate continued wage pressure and tight competition for skilled labor. Schedules will remain vulnerable to staffing gaps, and owners may increasingly factor workforce stability into contractor selection. This dynamic underscores the importance of stronger workforce development pipelines, more consistent processes, and technology that enables teams to maintain productivity.
“With STACK, we have scaled continuously with less employees. We were able to downsize 8-10 guys and still produce $1.5M more than we did the year before.”
5. How Contractors Can Position Themselves for 2026
While the environment may feel mixed, contractors can use the clarity in sectoral trends to position themselves effectively.
A strong first step is realigning business development efforts toward sectors with durable tailwinds. Infrastructure, utilities, healthcare, education, and especially data centers offer stability and growth potential that other segments currently lack. Contractors reliant on slowing markets may need to rethink their portfolio, exploring public-sector work or partnering with firms already embedded in high-growth niches.
Equally important is improving go/no-go discipline. With nonresidential building volume barely growing in real terms, chasing unqualified opportunities is a fast track to compressed margins. Many high-performing firms are leaning on preconstruction metrics—win rates, cost-variance trends, and project profitability patterns—to guide which bids deserve attention.
Preconstruction itself becomes a strategic differentiator in a selective-growth year. Owners are increasingly looking for clarity early: accurate takeoffs, scenario planning, visibility into potential risks, and transparent cost models. Firms that transform their preconstruction teams into consultative partners, rather than cost estimators alone, will be better positioned to win profitable work.
Data driven decision making in preconstruction is critical. Estimating may always involve some educated guesswork, but strong data turns that guesswork into an budget, estimate, or bid you can defend. When preconstruction teams interpret well organized historical cost and performance data, they reduce uncertainty, understand risk earlier and make more informed go/no-go decisions that move the firm forward.
Iris Valle
STACK Industry Consultant
Iris bult her career as a construction estimator in NYC, delivering detailed pricing and scope analysis for general contractors across a wide range of project types. She now brings an experienced estimator’s perspective to STACK, equipping preconstruction teams to work more efficiently and confidently from takeoff through proposal.
How STACK Helps Contractors Navigate 2026
As 2026 brings selective growth, tighter labor markets, and increasing project complexity, contractors need tools that accelerate decision-making, improve productivity, and reduce risk. STACK is uniquely positioned to support contractors across preconstruction and field operations with powerful digital workflows, automation, and emerging AI capabilities.
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Faster, More Accurate Preconstruction with AI-Assisted Takeoffs STACK’s AI and automation tools help estimators move faster than ever, reducing manual measurement time and improving accuracy. This equips teams to respond to more opportunities without sacrificing quality, which is critical in a year when disciplined bidding matters more than volume. -
Standardized, Repeatable Processes Across Teams With labor shortages and turnover affecting nearly all trades, STACK enables contractors to create consistent workflows and templates that make new hires productive sooner. Centralized data ensures that teams across offices or divisions work from the same playbook. -
Data-Driven Bidding Confidence STACK brings all project information into one platform, allowing contractors to analyze historical performance, spot cost or productivity trends, and make more informed go/no-go decisions. In a flat-growth year, knowing which projects you shouldn’t pursue is as important as knowing which ones you should. -
Reliable Field Execution and Real-Time Collaboration STACK Build & Operate keeps crews aligned—online or offline—with up-to-date plans, progress tracking, and issue documentation. This reduces delays caused by unclear communication and enhances visibility for project managers and superintendents. -
A Platform Built for Growth and Diversification Whether contractors are expanding into infrastructure (like STACK customer PCL Construction exploring data center work, or standardizing operations across multiple regions, STACK provides a scalable digital foundation to support strategic growth in 2026 and beyond.
What’s Next
If there’s a single theme that defines 2026, it’s intentionality. The year rewards contractors who prioritize focus over breadth, discipline over volume, and productivity over brute-force staffing. Rates will ease, but not dramatically. Demand will hold, but not everywhere. The strongest opportunities favor firms willing to commit to operational excellence and smart market positioning.
Whether you’re scaling up for complex projects, diversifying into new sectors, or optimizing operations during a selective-growth year, STACK helps you build a resilient, high-performing construction business equipped for 2026 and beyond.
The post 2026 Construction Forecast: Five Things Contractors Need to Know appeared first on STACK Construction Technologies.
